Manufacturing organizations rely on operational data, however, converting information into decisions and performance improvements remains challenging. This study examines how analytics capability and sensing capability influence operational performance (OPP) through data-driven decision-making (DDDM) and operational adjustment agility, while assessing environmental complexity as a moderator. A cross-sectional survey yielded 174 valid responses from manufacturing professionals, and the model was evaluated using partial least square. Results show that sensing capability positively predicts DDDM, whereas analytics capability has no significant effect. DDDM positively predicts operational adjustment agility and OPP, while agility also improves performance. Indirect effects reveal that DDDM mediates the relationship between sensing capability and operational adjustment agility. It also mediates the relationship between analytical capability and operational adjustment agility. Furthermore, decision-making and operational adjustment agility sequentially mediate the sensing capability–performance relationship. The corresponding indirect pathways from analytics capability are not statistically significant. However, the moderating effect of environmental complexity is insignificant. The findings highlight sensing-led decisions and operational adaptation as routes to manufacturing performance, offering implications for capability development and research on contextual contingencies.